The 'Our Moldova Alliance' ("AMN") is the smallest party in the parliamentary opposition, and, according to some accounts, is in danger of failing to clear the 6% threshold at the anticipated elections.
Yet, of all three opposition parties, AMN is the one with the greatest chance of generating victory over the communists. Here's why:
1. AMN can capture the votes of non-communist rusophones, who currently vote for the likes of Tarlev or Braghis. AMN takes a 'moldovenist' view of the identity question and does not promote reunification with Romania. AMN does not want Moldova to join NATO. Urecheanu strives always to maintain good relations with Russia.
2. AMN can capture the votes of rural pensioners, a group which has voted heavily for the communists in the last 3 elections but has no strong allegiance to them. Of the three opposition parties, AMN is the strongest in the countryside and the most representative of older voters.
Together with a partial reversal of the April 5th fraud, a broadening of AMN's support should be sufficient to win the opposition 51 seats in the upcoming election.