You read it here first. By the end of 2009, the PCRM will cease to be a significant force in Moldovan politics.
Why am I being so bold? Primarily because the Americans have turned their face from Voronin and his crew and even the Russians are starting to think twice. Consider the events of the past week:
1. The defeat of Grecianei's presidential nomination by the opposition, which once and for all put paid to the lie that the Moldovan opposition is weak and divided.
2. Obama's diplomatic snub to Voronin (delegating Hillary Clinton to respond to Voronin's letter)
3. Other evidence of a toughening in stance by the US - a demand for a full investigation into the April 5th election fraud, a description of the Moldovan media as being intimdated by the PCRM.
4. Quietness from the Russians, c.f. their earlier belligerence.
5. Most importantly, the decision by the IMF (in which the US is the biggest shareholder) not to extend financing until after the anticipated elections.
6. The decision by Marian Lupu to leave the party and the Communist caucus.
Let's face it, Moldova is bankrupt and the economic situation is getting worse by the day. The Russians do not have money to spare for Moldova, leaving the IMF as the only remaining source of finance. Their decision to withhold funds will mean that the PCRM goes into the elections with its lousy economic management plain for all to see.
The lack of bread on the table in Moldovan households will easily overcome any propaganda spewing out of TRM and other Communist-controlled media outlets. Lupu will take 5% - 10% of the vote away from the PCRM, and they won't be able to falsify the election results to the extent they did in April.
The communists will loss their majority in Parliament and hence their control over the media, the legislative process and the judiciary. Once that happens, it's all over for them. Many of their deputies will be stripped of immunity and put on trial for corruption, human rights abuses and breaches of the constitution. The sins of the last eight years will come out into the open and the Moldovan public (including many sympathisers) will be revolted.
If I were Voronin, I would fuel up the helicopter.