Thursday, July 23, 2009

Another day, another poll

A new poll has just been released based on samples taken in the ten days to 20th July.

My understanding of the d'Hondt formula is limited, however on data provided by the Association of Demographers and Sociologists I would see seats in the Parliament being apportioned as in the chart to the right. Unimedia gives the last seat to the Communists, whereas I would see it going to the Liberals.

This could be important, as without that seat the PCRM would not be able to block a presidential vote. As I have stated previously, I do not believe it would be in the interests of the communists to block the election of a president, however.

The main item of interest is the very strong showing of the centrist parties, the PD and especially the PSD. I'm not sure I believe the PSD result given the context of the campaign, although I could understand former communist voters supporting Lupu's democrats.

The liberal camp seems stuck at around the 40% mark. This probably has something to do with the biased information being fed to voters by the ruling regime's propaganda machine. Nonetheless, a president could not be elected without their approval. Also, it's good to see AMN safely crossing the 5% threshold.

All in all, provided the PCRM is unable to rig its way to victory, it looks like Lupu's democrats will hold the balance of power and Lupu will therefore be President. For this, however, he will need the support of the Liberal parties, and the price for this will probably be that the roles of speaker and prime-minister will be allocated to the PL and the PLDM. Other roles would be apportioned among the parties in the governing coalition (which would be all the non-communist parties with the possible exclusion of the PSD).

My 'dream team' would be Lupu as president (even if you don't like or trust the guy, he and Urecheanu are the only politicians capable of representing all of the country's citizens), Filat as prime minister, Urucheanu as speaker and Ghimpu as head of the Constitutional Court (is he eligible). This would play to their strengths - Filat's managerial ability, Urecheanu's sense of fair-play and Ghimpu's strong democratic credentials. The latest poll means this is no longer impossible.

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