Thursday, July 30, 2009

I get 47.

The latest results published by CEC are as follows:

Concurenţi electorali Voturi
Partidul Comuniştilor din Republica Moldova 706,630
Alianţa “Moldova Noastră” 116,088
Partidul Liberal 230,698
Partidul Liberal Democrat din Moldova 261,265
Partidul Democrat din Moldova 198,114

My understanding of the D'Hondt formula is that it works as follows:

1. Add up all the votes for parties which have crossed the threshold (1,592,795 with 99.8% counted)

2. Divide this by the number of seats (101) to get the number of votes per seat (14,978).

3. Give a seat to the party with the highest number of votes.

4. Subtract 14,978 (the "purchase price") from the party you've just given a seat to.

5. Repeat steps 3 & 4 until all seats are allocated

I did this in Excel. The first 30 seats go to the Communists. From then on the next largest party, the Liberal Democrats, start picking up seats as well. The Liberals start their count at seat 36, the Democrats at seat 43 and Moldova Noastra at seat 65.

When I go through this process I replicate CEC's seat results for the PLDM, PL & PD - 18, 15 & 13 respectively. But I get 1 less for the Communists (47 instead of 48) and one more for Moldova Noastra (8 instead of 7).

This may not seem a big deal, however it would give the three liberal parties 41 seats, which, as we know, is enough to block a presidential election.

Have I got something wrong, or is CEC trying to pull a fast one on us?

3 comments:

  1. I tried this http://icon.cat/util/elections# with the number of votes and I get 48

    ReplyDelete
  2. Unfortunately you are correct. The D'Hondt method is a bit more complex than I thought, introducing an element of non-linearity through the use of a quotient. This actually unfairly favours the larger parties.

    ReplyDelete
  3. try this
    http://www.fileden.com/files/2006/9/9/209695/Result%20July%202009.xls

    ReplyDelete