Thursday, August 20, 2009

Join the dots

Dot number one: Parliament will meet on August 28th and a presdiential election will follow in which communist votes will be decisive.

Dot number two: US ambassador Asif Chaudry states (disingenuosly) that he honestly believes that the entire international community (including Russia) has the objective of developing Moldova, and that the AIE coalition should work together with the communists.

Dot number three: (Discredited) EU emissary Kalman Miszei meets with the (interim interim) Minister for Reintegration Vasile Sova, in order to restart Transnistrian settlement negotioations as soon as possible.

Dot number four: Voronin is off to Sochi for consultations with Medvedev.

On the face of it, this is all very strange:

1. American ambassadors are way too well informed to believe that Moscow is interested in Moldova's development.

2. Why would Miszei meet on the Transnistrian question with Sova when Sova will be replaced within a month by an AIE minister?

3. Why is Medvedev wasting his time with a political corpse like Voronin?

One hypothesis comes to mind.

a. All the big international players, together with the PCRM have come to some sort of accord which would see Moldova 'Finlandised' (i.e. neutral in all senses of the word - no NATO, no EU, no Russian troops).

b. Transnistria will be reintegrated with a high degree of autonomy. This will allow Russia to redeem itself somewhat for its sins in Georgia last year, while at the same time retaining a high degree of influence in Moldova (and Transnistria in particular).

c. The Communists have agreed to play ball, considering that some form of 'miraculous' Transnistrian settlement will boost their flagging ratings and strengthen their negotiating position with the AIE.

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