Monday, May 24, 2010

Kyrgyzstan on Prut?

From Petru Bogatu's blog:

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, in a televised interview, compared the state of things in Moldova with that of a country which is on the eve of a popular revolt. "With regard to Moldova, we recognize that the political situation is not yet stable.  The situation may not be as acute as in Kyrgyzstan, but it is very similar to this country, " pointed out the head of government in Moscow with a knowing air.

Sounds like a threat

Curious, no? Where did he get that from? What's really in his head?

Moldova is the only ex-Soviet state, (except for the Baltics, of course), where the succession of power occurred over the years by democratic parliamentary elections which were more or less free.  Nobody fired on the Parliament building, as in Russia in 1993.  There was no orange revolution as in Kiev in 2004.  We haven't had any terrorist acts committed in parliament as in Armenia and there hasn't been a civil war as in Tajikistan.

Although defective, Moldova is a European-style democracy, which bears little resemblance to the despotic regimes in many other countries of the former USSR.  Viewed from this angle, Putin's words sound strange.  I can't escape the thought that at the centre is a threat.

I'm not exaggerating one iota.  The Russian Prime Minister alluded to the instability of Kyrgyzstan, which recently underwent a strange revolt.  At first peaceful and fragile, it later degenerated into violence.  A rebellion, unleashed in the provinces and quickly picked up in the capital Bishkek was, according to international press, conducted in the shadow of Russian agents and led, only two days after its outbreak, to the removal from power of President Bakiev.

Lightning can strike suddenly

This creates the impression that Putin announces a political storm in Moldova. Do not forget, he would say to the Moldovan authorities, that though there is not currently any thunder or lightning, lightning can strike suddenly at any time. Unstable weather can be converted to a real disaster.

Let us not beat around the bush. Anyway you look at it, the Russian leader in threatening a Kyrgyz-style coup in the Republic of Moldova.  He is scaring us with a major destabilization, notwithstanding that his statement takes the form of a 'remote and friendly analysis'.

Does this interpretation seem exaggerated? Speaking sincerely, for the moment I have no dark sensations about political events in Chisinau.  There are, however signs that give grounds for suspicion.

First of all, there is the Communist Party's obsession with mass protest actions.  There is also a bad smell about last Friday's meeting of the PCRM leader Vladimir Voronin with foreign ambassadors accredited in Chisinau. It seems that he is trying to prepare the ambassadors psychologically for a deterioration in the political situation.  Also suspicious and strange is the unprecedented mobilization of fundamentalists and religious bigots, affiliated to the Moscow Patriarchate, which manage to gather in the street thousands of people.


Putin's gesture is creepy and reminds me of other comparisons that Russian officials have made when it came to the Republic of Moldova.  They occurred in 1992, amidst the war on the Dniester.  Only then it was not Kyrgyzstan but Georgia that was being used as an example.  They led former Moldovan president Mircea Snegur to understand that he could end up like Zviad Gamsahurdia, the leader in Tbilisi who, as we now know, was liquidated by a Russian intelligence service operation.

Moreover, the palace coup in Bishkek was preceded by a massive propaganda attack launched by the media in Moscow against the President who would be overthrown. Similarly, the war against Georgia in August 2008 was preceded by a campaign of manipulation of public opinion which attempted, through street movements, to destabilize the political situation in Tbilisi.

Is a  tough response to the protests from April 7, 2009 being prepared for us?

Putin's regime has shown repeatedly that is vengeful and never forgets.


  1. ”The situation may not be as acute as in Kyrgyzstan, but it is very similar to this country" - wrong translation and quotation - original ”Она может быть не такая уж острая, как в Киргизии, но мы все были свидетелями того, что ситуация в Молдове в какой-то момент мало чем отличалась от ситуации в Киргизии.” at some point was not far from - re April 2009.