Wednesday, December 1, 2010

A glass half full

It seemed too good to be true, and it was.

The exit polls published late on Sunday night showed a collapse in the communist vote, to as low as 26%. It seemed that Moldovans had finally woken up to the true nature of the party to which they had entrusted their government. Was this the national re-awakening we had been hoping for? Were the Moldovan people finally taking responsibility for their own future?

Prima facie, the answer is no. The polls were out by a country mile and 40% of the electorate turned out and masochistically asked the Communists to once again destroy the country's future. To non-communists this was incomprehensible - how could anyone vote for the communists knowing of their lies and crimes? The situation reminded me of the 1996 election in Russia, when I asked a Russian friend why anybody would vote for Zhirinovsky. His reply: "Only an idiot would vote for Zhirinovsky. We have a lot of idiots."

Take a closer look at the results, however, and the picture improves somewhat.

  1. At 39.3%, fewer than 2 in 5 Moldovans now support the communists. They can no longer claim to speak for the country.
  2. They have lost seven percentage points of support and six seats. That's a stinging rebuke of all of the boycotts and other nonsense that they have been peddling.
  3. For the first time this century the Communists have been beaten in several raions by another party
  4. The communists are in a secular decline.  It's slower than we would like, but at this rate they'll decline to 15% or so by the next scheduled election in four years' time.
  5. Russian fascists such as Selin and Klimenko have been shown to have next to zero support. They speak for no-one.
  6. The electorate showed wisdom in ignoring the side-shows and focussing their votes on the four main parties.
  7. The 'liberal vote' (PL +PLDM + AMN + MAE + PNL) has broken the 40% barrier and stands at 43%, well in excess of the 39.3% won by the communists.
  8. It's highly likely that, after a whole lot of pompous grandstanding from the Democrats, the AIE will be reformed, this time with a comfortable majority in parliament.
So there you have it; a glass half full and a good result under the circumstances.

PS:  At the time of writing there are a couple of rumours circulating.
  1. The first has the PD going into coalition with the PCRM.  Lupu would be president, Dodon prime minister and Muntean speaker.  This would of course be a disaster, and would signal an end to Moldova's hopes of becoming a normal country.  Happily I don't think this idea has legs as Moldova is dependent on international financing, which would dry up under a communist government.
  2. The second, more, credible rumour has Vlad Pafotniuc negotiatng the defection of several communist deputies to the Democrat Party, in order to facilitate the election of a President.

1 comment:

  1. 15% in four years... LOL don't push it Zimbru :) Even minorities count for more than that and we all know how they vote.

    Altough kudos to the Gagaguz people for voting the Communists "only" up to 60%, after 80% in July last year.